Maroc - EURASIAREVIEW.COM - A la une - 17/Aug 11:01

Vientiane’s New Strategic Returns To Hanoi – Analysis

Vietnam's President To Lam made a first trip abroad since taking office with a visit to Laos in July last month, in enhancing a 62-year relationship between the two neighbours. This serves as a message of intent and strong trust building capacity to preserve and elevate the values-based approach and basis of the bilateral ties between the two nations, as both share similar governance systems and external challenges and threats. The visit is in response to the invitation from his Lao counterpart Thongloun Sisoulith, who is also Secretary General of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party Central Committee. With different agreements signed, it signals the intent by both sides to deepen the ties that will be firstly pinned on economic and trade enhancement and interdependence, and by using this as a basis and the fundamental platform for deeper ideological and political coordination and linkages. As the first primary factor, Hanoi will want to consolidate regional economic friendshoring as a solid fundamental factor to build on more rapport and trust in securing security and geopolitical interests. As Hanoi is traditionally dependent upon China and the greater archipelago members of the Southeast Asian nations for trade, investment and economic advancement, and with Russia and the US for the greater security and defence support, the Mekong region remains critical and strategic for Hanoi to increase its fallback and leverage options. Two-way trade between Laos and Vietnam in the first quarter of 2024 reached US$476.8 million, an increase of 12 percent as compared to last year. With a total registered capital of US$5.5 billion, Vietnam is among the top three foreign investors in Laos. Critical areas of focus are on energy and food security, which also are being sought after by Vientiane in securing its energy and supply chain resilience. Laos is also caught in a new Chinese dilemma in detaching itself from a China reliant economic outlook and at the same time needed a more reliable and realistic security support from within its near neighbour geographical setting and in the Mekong region. Both are also in transition towards embracing new growth factors, especially science and technology led development and digital and green transformation. Laos is looking to Vietnam as the next leader in these spheres in this region, and with greater geographical connectivity in the pipeline, these sectors will benefit Laos more in the longer term. Vietnam is seen as a natural biggest power in the continental South East Asia, in terms of future economic power prospects and military and security capacities. Taking into account Vietnam's naval capacity and a future naval power in the region, Laos will need to rely on Hanoi's advantage in this area to secure its future maritime trade platform, in securing its food and supply chain security. This is reflected in the request by Laos to increase its share in the Vung Ang port to 60%, which will see it to be the major shareholder. Laos sees a future where it cannot reliably rely on the goodwill of its neighbours in addressing or securing its future geopolitical needs, and Hanoi's current geopolitical interests align with Vientiane's strategic need to seek a secured maritime route in escaping from its landlocked geographical limitation. Greater connectivity will mean greater volumes of trade and economic activities, and in reviving employment and development opportunities for Laos, with the upcoming railways connecting the port to Vientiane and also linking the capital to Hanoi by expressway which is approximately more than 700km long. To Hanoi and to President To Lam, securing a deeper tie up in areas of high politics especially on political and ideological synergy and understanding, will be a greater critical factor, which will ease the barriers to the lower level implementation capacity. Capturing greater people to people ties and in building soft power enhancement of Vietnam in Laos also remain a strategic need and intent in slowly building an alternative image, power broker and a supporter in both economic and security provider for Laos apart from the traditional dependence on China. This serves as a two-pronged win for Vietnam, in consolidating its new frontier and effort in portraying itself a leader in the Mekong region and in proving to China and other regional neighbours that Vietnam is emerging as a new regional leader in cementing its role as a regional playmaker that can stand up to both China and the US and in forging an independent and peaceful regional and national policy direction. For both nations, domestic security and considerations remain paramount, and both seek to consolidate and preserve domestic order, regime security, political stability, social order, and safety. In this regard, a shared direction and acceptance of the some normative ideology and principle remains strategic and interdependent for both countries, and the targeting of the new and young generations in churning out new narratives and moulding of the system based on these conventional values of political stability and shared prosperity remain pivotal for both regime security and a wider geopolitical and national interests. Both countries are seeking for a reform in the economic, trade, energy and critical development factors, while maintaining stability and status quo in domestic developments and grip and domestic public security. Both remain wary of higher influence by foreign influence and powers, including China, and both have reaffirmed solidarity and centrality of Asean and Asean led mechanisms. Laos sees Vietnam as its natural dependent player in elevating Laos's relevance, presence and influence firstly at the regional level, and in expanding it to the greater regional level.